Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions are Fail - and Why We Believe
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For fans of Blink, The Tipping Point, and Freakonomics, here is a brilliant, funny, and accessible exploration of our flawed quest for certainty.
For fans of Blink, The Tipping Point, and Freakonomics, here is a brilliant, funny, and accessible exploration of our flawed quest for certainty.
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later, it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the world's fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe.
Let's face it- experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet, every day, we ask them to predict everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, demonstrating why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, bestselling author Dan Gardner shows how pundits who are more famous are less accurate - and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioural economics to discover something quite reassuring- The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
'As Yogi Berra observed, "it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." In this brilliant and engaging book, Dan Gardner shows us how tough forecasting really is, and how easy it is to be convinced otherwise by a confident expert with a good story. This is must reading for anyone who cares about the future.'
- Paul Slovic , Professor of Psychology, University of Oregon
'Future Babble is genuinely arresting ... required reading for journalists, politicians, academics and anyone who listens to them.'
- Steven Pinker, Professor of Psychology, Harvard University, author of How the Mind Works and The Stuff of Thought
Author: Dan Gardner
Format: Paperback, 319 pages, 151mm x 233mm, 420 g
Published: 2011, Scribe Publications, Australia
Genre: Popular Culture & Media: General Interest
Description
For fans of Blink, The Tipping Point, and Freakonomics, here is a brilliant, funny, and accessible exploration of our flawed quest for certainty.
For fans of Blink, The Tipping Point, and Freakonomics, here is a brilliant, funny, and accessible exploration of our flawed quest for certainty.
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later, it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the world's fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe.
Let's face it- experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet, every day, we ask them to predict everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, demonstrating why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, bestselling author Dan Gardner shows how pundits who are more famous are less accurate - and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioural economics to discover something quite reassuring- The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
'As Yogi Berra observed, "it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." In this brilliant and engaging book, Dan Gardner shows us how tough forecasting really is, and how easy it is to be convinced otherwise by a confident expert with a good story. This is must reading for anyone who cares about the future.'
- Paul Slovic , Professor of Psychology, University of Oregon
'Future Babble is genuinely arresting ... required reading for journalists, politicians, academics and anyone who listens to them.'
- Steven Pinker, Professor of Psychology, Harvard University, author of How the Mind Works and The Stuff of Thought
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions are Fail - and Why We Believe